Through the study of on-chain data, we can find that the top 1000 BTC VIP users have increased their holdings in this bear market. The age distribution of BTC UTXO shows that the number of those who have held their tokens for more than a year has exceeded 60%. Combined with the market, we can conclude that the current round of the market has not changed the view of this group of "giant whales" on the value of BTC. In the long run, the price of 70,000 is still not high, and the long-term locking of this part of the chips also provides a good basis for BTC to rise in the future (low selling pressure, easy to pull up the market value). Until there is a massive loosening of these chips, BTC market cap is full of imagination.
On top of this, the crypto market's influence has been greatly enhanced in this bull market. The strong linkage to US stocks and the keen response to the global economy suggests that the crypto market has become a valid market rather than the niche casino it was before. And with 24 hour round-the-clock trading, it can also provide a forward-looking reference for other markets. This is a significant increase for crypto assets that have previously been unrecognised by mainstream finance. It means that there will be a qualitative increase in the attention paid to the crypto market by sizeable funds and professional investors, and that the crypto market is still young, with plenty of room for upside in terms of volume, and the wealth effect of the bull market will remain at the forefront of global assets for a long time.
However, for these reasons, the bull market in the crypto market will not be as extreme as before. For example, BTC went from 10,000 pies for two pizzas in the first brutal phase to a high of $30 in the first bull market, a very exaggerated rise. Even the 2017 bull market, from a few hundred dollars to the highest 20,000, there are still nearly 100 times the rate of increase, but the current round of bull market is only 4,000 - 70,000, less than 20 times, and the next round of bull market, basically from about 10,000 to start (probability of 10,000 or more), the highest to the beginning of the six figures, which is more than ten times the rate of increase.
Until BTC rises to the range of 300,000-500,000, the market value is comparable to gold, or the aforementioned long-term chips are loosened on a large scale, signaling that the giant whales that have been laying out for years are collectively looking at the top. Then the huge wealth effect of the crypto market will probably come to an end (or the investment logic will be reshaped to a higher value project to represent the market).
In summary, even if we look at it pessimistically, there is still at least one more bull market with a strong wealth effect, which is the next one.
Recent events: tonight at 8:30, the United States second quarter GDP annualized quarterly rate released, the previous value of below1.6% is expected to 0.5%, if the second quarter is lower than expected and negative, it indicates that the economy may be recession, for the negative; if significantly higher than expected for the good; basically in line with expectations is no impact
The economy is likely to be in recession, which is positive.
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